Strategic trends
TNT believes the following trends will be increasingly relevant to its business over the next five to ten years:
Economic
The global economic crisis will affect the overall consumption in the world, leading to lower volumes being transported.
Environmental
There is growing consensus amongst the general public, politicians and others that climate change is threatening the environment. Increasing levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere are trapping more heat, thus increasing global temperatures. This phenomenon, referred to as global warming, will give rise to all sorts of measures and regulations that try to abate the CO2 emissions around the globe. Since transport and distribution contribute nearly one-fifth to these emissions, the transport and distribution industries will be affected significantly by any measures or regulations. TNT has responded pro-actively to this challenge by launching its Planet Me initiative. More details on Planet Me can be found in TNT’s 2008 corporate responsibility report.
Demographic
Demographic trends are changing the composition of the population across the globe. For example, in the largest Western European countries it is estimated that between 20% and 25% of the population will be above the age of 65 by 2020. Also, people will live increasingly in cities with more than five million inhabitants (so-called megacities), posing significant distribution challenges.
As a result of the ageing population, spending on healthcare will increase significantly. In addition, there is a trend towards more biopharma products and an increased need for special handling services in healthcare.
These trends have several implications for the transportation and distribution industry, such as accelerated growth of healthcare product flows, an increasing demand for to-consumer distribution networks, and possibly more challenges in attracting and retaining staff.
Restructuring of global supply chains
Driven by globalization, multinationals continue to move their manufacturing to countries with low-cost labour such as China. With an increasing middle class in the emerging countries, spending in those markets will rise, driving regional transportation and global flows as well. In contrast, environmental concerns may eventually lead to a renewed regionalization of manufacturing and regional “self sufficiency” models.
Digitization
Digitization is a trend that TNT has faced for quite some time. As a result of continuously improving technologies, documents can be digitized, transmitted and reproduced without requiring delivery of the printed material. Digitized design of goods and services as well as globalization of product development and promotion will also influence delivery requirements.