Outlook
In February 2009, TNT announced it would not give a 2009 outlook. The following paragraph describes the operating environment TNT sees itself to be in.
TNT assumes that its trading environment is likely to continue to be under pressure still although it seems to show initial signs of recovery through to the end of 2009. In line herewith the first 4 weeks in Q4 2009 of the Express business show an improving volume trend. Given continuing low visibility and the still-tentative economic recovery, however, management continues to refrain from giving a more detailed outlook for 2009.
Express revenues in 2009 are expected to be down compared to 2008, as a result of lower volumes and lower fuel surcharges.
For Mail in the Netherlands, as previously indicated, addressed volumes are expected to show an increasing rate of decline compared with the years before 2009, driven by substitution, along with a somewhat weaker price mix. Emerging Mail & Parcels is expected to continue to grow in revenue at a comparable underlying operating margin to 2008.
Cost savings in total of around € 550 – € 600 million, are targeted in 2009 (€ 434 million reached in the first three quarters of the year).
Pension charges to the P&L will go up from € 24 million in 2008 to € 64 million in 2009, as previously indicated.
TNT previously indicated a level of provisions for its cost optimisation initiatives in the period 2008-2010 of € 125-200 million and possible impairments up to € 150 million. TNT has charged € 41 million of provisions for these initiatives in the three quarters of 2009 and € 115 million in 2008 and made impairments of € 44 million in 2008. The indicated range of provisions does not include the possible impact of CLA negotiations for Mail Netherlands.